The Many Shapes of The NBA Draft

This particular post drew inspiration from a Twitter ping-pong match between Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey and ESPN's Bill Simmons. The spat ignited when Morey playfully linked to ESPN's panel of  experts' pessimistic forecasts for the Rockets in the upcoming season and declared ESPN writer Jemele Hill as the smartest of the bunch as she was the only one that predicted the Rockets would make the playoffs.

Then, Morey jabs Bill Simmons for withholding his predictions like a coward.  Here's how it went down in Twitland:

@dmorey:  J.Hill is smartest on ESPN http://bit.ly/2yQPo I am now defriending Adande,Hollinger&Stein.@sportsguy33 afraid to predict-not ready to be GM

@dmorey:  The past 3 seasons we have been the #1 defense in the NBA (07:#3,08:#2,09:#4).Maintaining this integrity will be key to making the playoffs.

@sportsguy33: @dmorey seems awfully defensive about his Rockets. Its going to be awkward when I pick them to go 14-68. I'm not gonna lie.

@dmorey:  @sportsguy33 Not defensive,just realist.Eg-I would not make quixotic run at being a sports writer if I once wrote"A.Morrison:love that pick"

 Zing!  For those who don't read The Sports Guy's every word, Morey is referring to a comment Simmons made in the 2006 version of his annual NBA Draft diary (which ironically now reads like a Twitter feed):

7:49pm - Charlotte takes Adam Morrison. Love that pick.

Well, we all know how that turned out.  I gave the diary another read and I noticed Bill Simmons stamped his approval on several prospects that haven't turned out well.  He shared the same bullish feelings about the Chicago Bulls' No. 4 selection of Tyrus Thomas as well as the Atlanta Hawks' pick of Shelden Williams at No.5.  Those three have yet to become anything more than marginal contributors.


During my stint at ESPN.com Insider, I put together the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative, a monster study that broke down the last 20 years of the NBA Draft. The project yielded over a dozen articles on ESPN.com and that's just the tip of the content iceberg.  Eric Neel, one of ESPN's finest, wrote a piece that analyzed the best and worst classes in the study using Estimated Wins Added, John Hollinger's version of WARP, as the measuring stick of (my) choice. Neel tiered the draft classes and tossed Adam Morrison's 2006 class into "The Next Best Thing" bin that stood underneath "The Top Tier" classes and above two others.  Go read the piece in its entirety here.


To prep Neel for the article, I sent him a packet stuffed with graphs and data that actually placed 2006 class in the bottom half of the last 20 classes.  Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Paul Millsap, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo, and Ronnie Brewer are all fine players but in terms of sheer depth, 2006 was undeniably disappointing.


If you've ever visited the sabermetrically awesome Beyond the Boxscore website and seen their equally awesome career Wins Above Replacement graphs, then my pretty picture below should look familiar. Today, I sorted every player by their EWA per year and then separated them into their respective draft classes.  Here are best 30 players in each of the last ten draft classes.  As a reminder, the horizontal axis ranks by quality of player not by draft order.  Players selected in the second round are also included. Be sure to click on the graph if its too small.

As expected, the orange 2003 class reigns supreme on the backs of the big four: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony. Amazingly, those four trump any player selected in the 2000, 2007, and 2008 draft classes.  The LeBron-led group descends back to Earth at about the sixth best player (Josh Howard) and returns to normal levels of production thereafter.


With Chris Paul as its anchor, the vastly underrated 2005 draft class prides itself on 25 draftees that have produced more than a win per year on average. Paul's extraordinarily productive career appears to positively skew 2005's talent distribution but it is easily one of the very best top to bottom.  The purple line's separation after the eighteenth best player illustrates the strikingly wide talent spread.


For fun, contrast 2005's talent line with the subsequent class of 2006 displayed in darker green.  It only boasts about half as many servicable players. Notice how it dips below the 1 EWA line at the n = 15 mark.  Paul's class doesn't cross that line until the 26th player. The drop in serviceable talent is remarkable in just a year's time.


The 2003 class may boast the most superduperstars and the 2005 class contains the most above replacement level players but the 1999 class is just as impressive considering their long line of star players.  Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Baron Davis, Steve Francis, Richard Hamilton, Andrei Kirilenko, Lamar Odom, Manu Ginobili, Corey Maggette, Ron Artest, and Wally Szczerbiak were all selected in this absolutely loaded draft year, explaining the large bump between the seventh and thirteenth best players.

I love these graphs because they add so many more dimensions to the Best and Worst Draft Class debate.  Do you prefer top end talent? 2003 is yours.  Want lots of All-Stars? Look no further than 1999.  Maybe quantity is your cup of tea? That'll be 2005.  I know one thing: I wish I declared in 2000.