Baseball's Biggest Non-Stories Heading Into the Second Half

Here are the baseball stories that you won’t find on the sports media headlines because… well probably because Ted Thompson, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers aren’t involved.

The A’s Can Catch the Angels

Many people point to the Harden trade as a signal that Billy Beane has thrown in the towel for the 2008 season.

I see it differently. So should you.

Beane astutely understood that Rich Harden’s market value reached its peak after a blistering first half. Over 13 starts, he had a 2.34 ERA and struck out 92 batters in 77 innings. For comparison, Harden had made 13 starts combined during the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Injuries were the only thing holding Harden from becoming a Top-10 starter in baseball. The A’s brass must have been anticipating this moment to deal for years.

Much like he unloaded Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton in the winter of 2004, Billy Beane received a package of prospects for the long haul. Consider Sean Gallagher the Danny Haren of this bundle.

Just 22 years old, Gallagher sports an impressive 4.25 ERA in his debut season. Looking back at Danny Haren’s first season in the majors, we see that he had a 5.08 ERA in 72 2/3 innings when he was just 22 years old. We all know how he turned out.

Another piece of the Harden trade, Matt Murton has already proved he can hit in the bigs despite falling out of the Cubs good graces. Murton’s career .810 OPS should serve well in left-field and he will push Jack Cust to designated hitter where he belongs.

It will be a tough road to the playoffs as he A’s find themselves 6 games back behind the Angels and 6.5 games back in the Wild Card. However, the A’s have a lot to be excited about.
The A’s have allowed the fewest runs in the majors and 31 fewer than the next best team. So if they had a surplus of anything, it was quality pitching. Their huge run differential (+65) and their Pythagorean W-L record indicates that the A’s should be four games better rather than 51-44. The Angels on the other hand have played way over their heads, with a Pythagorean W-L of 50-45 and have a run differential of just +21.

Chalk it up to a spell of unluckiness that the A’s aren’t ahead of the Angels right now. Don’t be surprised if they switch spots in the near future. I know Billy won’t be.

Not a Dominant Team in Baseball

If you listened to New York sports radio for a few minutes these days, you’d probably think that the Mets are on pace to win 115 games and the Yankees were destined to be delegated to the Independent League.

Not so. In fact, the Mets are merely one game ahead of the Yankees and faring no better than the Brewers or the A’s.

There’s no parity in baseball you say? The Yankees have the same record as the Marlins who have spent less on their roster than the Yankees have on Giambi this year. The second highest payroll belongs to the Mets and they have a worse record than the second lowest spending team, the Tampa Bay Rays.

No team in baseball is projected to win 100 games this year and the NL West’s division leader isn’t above .500. Not only that, in 5 out of the 6 divisions, the lead is less than two games.
The tight competition should make teams yearn for four Wild Card spots in October. And as we all know, there’s only ONE OCTOBER!

Derek Jeter Is Having His Worst Season

Hank Steinbrenner’s mouth has started several controversies this year but let me mention something he probably refuses to admit: Jeter has been mediocre this season.

Why hasn't anyone brought up the fact that a player who makes $21.6 million this year has a worse OPS than Ryan Theriot?

Derek Jeter is batting .284 /.345/.395 (or a .740 OPS) while the league average is .745. He’s never batted below .290 in a season.

It’s his worst hitting first-half performance since he sported a .730 OPS in the first half of the 1996 season, his first full season in the majors. To make matters worse, fellow New York shortstop Jose Reyes is posting better numbers across the board than “Jetes”. Don’t think Jeter’s contributions can be measured solely by his bat? Well, Eric Hinske’s six stolen bases thwarts Derek Jeter’s total. Yes, Eric Hinske.

For all the troubles the 3^rd place Yankees have had this season, you’d think that Jeter’s ineptitude would be talked about more often.

Jeter’s Not Alone

AL shortstops have been absolutely terrible this year. Sure, Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez are no longer star shortstops in the American League anymore but their replacements are pathetic.

Consider these factoids. All-Star Michael Young is the only AL regular shortstop with a batting average higher than .285. The five regular shortstops in the AL East have a combined 13 HRs or the same as JJ Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers. Freddie Bynum and Tony Pena Jr have amassed 293 at bats this season.

I still cannot wrap my head around the fact that teams continue to allow Freddie Bynum and Tony Pena Jr to step into the batters box. I’m serious. I’ve thought about this for a long time.

AL Shortstops Are Not Alone

The American League may have snagged their 12^th straight All-Star game victory but they should feel very lucky.

American League hitting as a whole hasn’t been this bad in about 15 years. Runs, hits and homerun rates are all much lower than they have been. AL teams haven’t hit this bad (9.1 hits per game) since 1992 when they compiled a paltry 8.9 H/G. They also haven’t had this low of a home run rate (0.96) since 1993 when AL teams hit 0.92 home runs a game.

Is better pitching to blame?

New Era of Elite Starting Pitchers

Even though the All-Star game is not the best measuring stick for the best players in the game, it does serve as a barometer of who the fans, coaches, and players feel deserves a spot. This All-Star game may be the sign of younger things to come. For the first time, the names John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Curt Schilling were not on the roll for the All-Star game-- ironic, given the Hall of Fame ceremony before the game.

Just to illustrate how young the starters elected to the All-Star game, none of the Top 20 active wins leaders were in this All Star game and only Roy Halladay and Carlos Zambrano are listed in the Top 50.

The Infamous Omar Minaya Trade

Just before the All-Star break in 2002, the Montreal Expos found themselves in the middle of the NL Wild-Card race. Knowing that it may be the last time they might have the chance to make the play-offs, then-GM Omar Minaya executed a steal of a trade with the Cleveland Indians. Minaya sent a few minor league prospects along with Lee Stevens for one of the games top pitchers, Bartolo Colon.

And by steal, I mean for Indians GM Mark Shapiro. The Expos finished a game out of the Wild-Card that year. Oh and those prospects were Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips.

The Upton Brothers Are Actually Identical Twins

You might not find this as cool as I do but here you go anyway. BJ Upton’s OPS is .787. His younger brother Justin has a .786 OPS. Maybe Justin hasn’t developed his old man strength yet?

2008: Year of the No. 1's

The MLB draft receives substantially less attention than any of the four major sports. It's understandable why since baseball draftees have a much longer road to the big stage and less publicity coming out of high school and college. However, the crop of #1 picks in baseball are undoubtedly more successful than the NFL and NBA.

Here's baseball's top resume:

• 2001 #1 pick Joe Mauer leads the AL in batting average .335.
• 2000 #1 pick Adrian Gonzalez leads the NL in RBI and stands tied for third in the NL with 20 home runs.
• 1999 #1 pick Josh Hamilton leads the AL in HR and RBIs while ranking 5th in OPS and 7th in batting average
• 1998 #1 pick Pat Burrell is second in the NL in walks, fifth in OPS and seventh in home runs.
• 1993 #1 pick Alex Rodriguez is runner-up for the AL batting title and third in OPS.
  
• 1990 #1 pick Chipper Jones leads the NL in hitting and OBP and second in OPS.
  
• 1987 #1 pick Ken Griffey Jr hit his 600th home run earlier this year and leads all active players in career home runs.

Oh, and 2005 #1 pick Justin Upton is third in the NL in strikeouts. The NBA has Allen Iverson and Lebron, the NFL has Peyton and Eli but these #1's are out of their league. Are top picks in baseball simply more likely to be sure-fire stars than football and basketball?

Brew Crew June: Milwaukee Hitting On All Cylinders

The Milwaukee Brewers are absolutely mashing the ball. No team has hit more home runs in the month of June than the Brewers who have also posted the third best ERA in the National League over the same time span. The Brewers are 11-5 this month while picking up two and half games on the second place St Louis Cardinals and a game on the Chicago Cubs who lead the NL Central. They may be 6 games out now but they're quietly making themselves a run.

Calling up Russell Branyan from the minors has given them a huge boost. His power has never been questioned as his career home run rate is one dinger every 14.7 at bats. It's just that he doesn't do much else. He was called up on May 25 and already he has more home runs than Matt Holliday, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Ken Griffey Jr. Unbelievably, 10 of his 19 hits this year are home runs. Moreover, of his last 6 home runs, the dinger was his only hit in the game. This guy just loves hitting home runs. Who needs Bill Hall?

Hitting in the clean up spot, Prince Fielder has had some serious dependency issues. Of Fielder's last 8 home runs, 6 of them have come in games that Ryan Braun or Russell Branyan have also homered. It could be that they're all hot at the same time. It also could be that he's lonely.

The Brewers couldn't have a picked a better time to get rolling. The Cubs are without Alfonso Soriano and could be losing ace Carlos Zambrano to arm trouble. Zambrano came out of his last start complaining of shoulder soreness and got an MRI today. No word yet on his status but the Cubs figure to be cautious with their ace. It's only a matter of time before Kerry Wood visits Dr. James Andrews.

Just two games ahead of the Brewers, the Cardinals are suffering too. Albert Pujols and Anthony Reyes sit on the disabled list while starter Todd Wellemeyer is taking the week off with elbow trouble. Not only that, starting catcher Yadier Molina has been kept out of the lineup because of a concussion he suffered on Monday that booked him an overnight stay at the hospital. Also, 2006 Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter hit a bump in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and won't be ready to return until at least September.

With the Cubs and Cardinals hampered with injuries, the Brewers may very well find themselves near the top of the division soon.

He's baaack:The Yanks Go Round 2 With Ponson

I guess the Yankees needed an answer to the Red Sox signing of Bartolo Colon.

The rotund Sidney Ponson has rejoined the Yankees after he was released by the Rangers just two days ago. I really thought that Yankees were a well-run franchise but this is really pushing it. There are only two plausible explanations for inking him to a deal: he has a respectable 3.88 ERA in 9 starts and he has averaged over 6 innings per start. But that's about it.

But lets look a little closer. He's really a hitter's dream as he has posted WHIP's of 1.46, 1.88, 1.69, 1.73, and 1.55 the last five seasons. He has the 7th worst strikeout rate in the majors among starters with at least 40 innings pitched. It's not like he's pitched against formidable teams either. The best offense he's faced is the Minnesota Twins who are 14th in the majors in runs per game. Every other offense is average at best (OAK, TB, CLE, HOU, SEA and KC).

Moreover, the Yankees couldn't possibly think that his 2006 stint in the Bronx instilled any confidence that he's still a serviceable major league pitcher. In three starts, he allowed 16 runs and 24 base runners in 12 innings. After the third start, the Yankees released him-- for good reason.

The best part is that the Rangers released Ponson for disciplinary reasons. It had nothing to do with his on-field performance. I really can't see why the Yankees actually want this guy in their rotation.

Dusty Baker Needs His Head Checked

If, for some terribly unfortunate reason, my GM signed Corey Patterson to play for my team, I wouldn't start him. Maybe an occasional pinch-run but that's about it. He's just a bad hitter. Of players with at least 150 plate appearances this season, Corey Patterson has the worst on-base percentage in the league (emphasis very much mine).

So, what does Cincinnati Reds Manager Dusty Baker do with him?

Bat him lead-off.

Mind you, he's batting in front of guys like Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Adam Dunn, and Ken Griffey Jr. Mind you, he's gotten on base 30 times in 131 plate appearances out of the lead-off position. Mind you, he's failed to get on base 77% of the time for them. Mind you, that's terrible.

I'm pointing to my head and pointing to you, Dusty. Mind. You.

The Top 3/Bottom 3 Phenomenon

Who needs $200 million anyway?

As I write this, the three lowest payroll teams in baseball (Marlins, Rays, and A's) have a better record than the top three payrolls (Yankees, Mets, and Tigers).

The Marlins continue to exceed expectations. They're three games back in the NL East and six games over .500. In the off season, they unloaded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in effort to cut a third of their payroll to a league-low $21 million. For what its worth, the Yankees pay Alex Rodriguez $28 million this year and find themselves with a worse record than the Marlins.

The Marlins have received huge contributions from unlikely guys like second baseman Dan Uggla (156 OPS+), third baseman Jorge Cantu (121 OPS+), and outfielder Cody Ross (.503 SLG). Neither of those three are making more than $500,000 this year. Cantu has replaced Cabrera at third and has hit more home runs and had a higher OPS than his predecessor so far this season. You didn't need me to tell you that he's making a fraction of what Cabrera makes.

And what about Andrew Miller? The 23-year old has a 2.77 ERA in his last 9 starts and has been one of the best NL starting pitchers in the months of May and June. And... you didn't need me to tell you that he makes a fraction of what Dontrelle Willis makes.

Once again, the Marlins seem to time the right moment to sell-high on their big players and find cheap, young players to fill in. I commented on Rich Lederer's recent column over at The Baseball Analysts and pointed out the 'Top 3/Bottom 3' phenomenon. Rich responded with "just as practice doesn't make perfect...perfect practice makes perfect, spending does not equal success...only wise spending equals success." I totally agree.

Now, lets just see if this can hold up throughout the rest of the season.

Victor's Power Outage

Every year, my oldest brother, my father and I play in the same fantasy baseball league. It's a nice tradition that is littered with trash talking, desperate complaints, and sarcastic remarks about our teams. Somehow, the fourth round in our draft this year was filled with players who are having extremely disappointing seasons so far. Justin Verlander. Eric Byrnes. Troy Tulowitzki. Travis Hafner. Derek Jeter.

But perhaps the most disappointing of the whole bunch is Victor Martinez, who my brother selected with his 4th pick. He recently sent me this message: "btw - all ur complaining about ur team and u dont have this issue... victor martinez."

It's true, I do complain a lot about my team-- I'm the guy who drafted Verlander and traded for Hafner. But my brother raises a good point.

As a catcher last year, Victor Martinez hit 25 home runs, 114 RBI and finished 7th in the MVP voting. He's one of the few catchers that typically posts big power numbers as he's hit 84 home runs the past 4 seasons. Everyone going into this year was high on the Cleveland catcher. His average draft pick this year was 35.1 and my brother drafted him 37th. A safe pick, really.

Well, Victor Martinez has yet to hit a home run this season. This is the same guy who hit those 25 dingers last year, only the 6th catcher to do so since 2000. He's played in 54 games this year and with 198 at bats, he still hasn't figured out a way to send the ball over the fence.

Since 2000, 143 players have taken more than 54 games to hit their first home run of the season. Only one of them had hit at least 25 home runs in the previous season and that guy just got fired by the Yankees-- Morgan Ensberg. In 2003, Morgan Ensberg hit exactly 25 home runs for the Houston Astros. In the following season, it took him 65 games and 205 at bats before he hit a home run. He finished with 10 home runs.

But what's most painful for my brother is that Victor is a catcher. To find a consistent power-hitting catcher (remember Mike Piazza and the old Ivan Rodriguez?) is extremely rare and worthy an early pick in fantasy baseball. But no power-hitting catcher has had this rough of a start in modern history. The last time someone was even close was in 1990 when Pat Borders hit 15 home runs and then played 50 games behind the plate in 1991 before he hit his first round-tripper. But that was just a 15 home run campaign.

For my brother, I guess it's good to know that SOMEONE has had this bad of a drought before except I doubt Morgan Ensberg was a top-40 fantasy pick in 2004. But... I can't say much since I'm currently ranked five spots behind him in the league standings.

Touche.

--UPDATE--

Victor Martinez was just placed on the 15-day DL.

From Rotoworld:

Indians placed C Victor Martinez on the 15-day disabled list. Martinez is dealing with inflammation in his right elbow. Indians manager Eric Wedge has revealed that he has been dealing with the troublesome elbow all season, which could help explain the power outage. It's unknown just how serious the injury is, but the Indians team page suggests that surgery is an option. We'll update as we know more.

Hey Rotoworld, next time you use the term "power outage" referring to Victor Martinez, you have to cite my title!

Joakim Soria: Best Start in Kansas City Royals History

After Octavio Dotel was traded to the Braves in late July last year, some wondered if the 23-year old rookie Joakim Soria could shoulder the load as the Royals closer. Soria flourished in the closer role; he converted 7 out of 8 save opportunities, sported a 2.55 ERA, and had a blistering 24/4 K/BB ratio in 24.2 innings. Batters hit just .174 off of him and he only let up 6 extra base hits. How could he top that?

Answer: by having a 0.00 ERA in 17 appearances this year. This is the best start any reliever has ever had in a Royals uniform. He's given up only 4 hits in 16.2 innings which equates to a .075 batting average. He let up a double to the first batter he faced this season. Since then, he's faced 56 batters and only two were privileged to reach second. No one has touched third base or home plate while Soria was on the mound. He has the lowest WHIP (0.31) in the league and the best K/BB rate among closers. The list goes on and on.

He's just 24 but it would be hard to argue that he isn't the best closer in the game right now. Soria, Billy Wagner, and BJ Ryan are the only relievers to not let up an earned run in at least 10 innings. Wagner has allowed three more baserunners than Soria in less work while Ryan has allowed twice as many as Soria.

Oh, and Octavio Dotel has a 1.442 WHIP this year.

Base Moods

Earlier today, my brother said to me, "Look at Rickie Weeks, he has more runs than hits! When was the last time someone this far into the season had more runs than hits?"

I didn't have to go back at all to find the answer. This year, Jacoby Ellsbury has 19 runs and only 16 hits. Interestingly enough, teammate Dustin Pedroia has the second most hits in the league (32) yet he only has 13 runs. The two guys who hit in front of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz have very different scoring ratios. How weird is that?

Speed, outs circumstance, and batting trends of the following batters are some of the variables that can cause the wide discrepancy. Additionally, there has only been about 20 games this season these samples are relatively small.

Nonetheless, it is still fun to analyze. To see who scores at the highest/lowest rate every time they get on base (which I called the Run Ratio), I chose to include the top 80 players in OBP that have at least 50 plate appearances so far this season. These guys would have more to complain about than those who do not get on-base well.

Poor Brian Schneider. He doesn't have any extra base hits yet so he doesn't have too much to gripe about. Still, he's only touched the plate once this year in the 23 times he's gotten to first. And, THEN, he has to sprint to throw on the catcher's pads for the next inning. You gotta feel for the guy.

The biggest surprise when I ran the study was that Chone Figgins finds himself 12th on this list. He's lead off every game for the Angels this year and has a .469 OBP. The slumps of #3 hitter Gary Matthews Jr and #5 hitter Garret Anderson have a lot to do with it. Chone is 7 for 10 on the basepaths and the only one in the top 15 that has more than one stolen base. Speed truly does not belong on this list and neither does a leadoff hitter. Figgins is both! Figgin' Gary Matthews...

For what it's worth, Dustin Pedroia ranks 27th on this list and has the worst Run Rate of any eligible second baseman.

The Mets and Cardinals are the only teams that have players on both lists. Ryan Church bats either 2nd, 6th, and 7th whereas Schneider has only bat in front of the pitcher and Jose Reyes. Ludwick, Glaus and Rick Ankiel rotate in and out of the 4th and 5th spots in the line up so Glaus' lack of speed could be a huge factor.

And there's Jacoby at the top of the list. I wouldn't call him lucky since he's so fast. I doubt Jacoby can keep this rate up but he has as good of a chance as any with his speed, place in the lineup, and on-base skills. It's more fun to think that he's just that much faster than Pedroia.

Under 30, Closest to 3000 K's

As John Smoltz records his 3,000th strikeout, let's take a look at the list of active pitchers under 30-years old with the most strikeouts in their career.

Of the six active pitchers in the 3,000K club, Pedro is the only one who is not over 40-years old. Santana's 162-game average is about 220 strikeouts so he'll need to continue at this rate for at least seven more seasons through the age of 36. The pitchers on this list will likely need to pitch to about 40-years old in order to accomplish the 3KK.

Atop the NL East, The Marlins Are Doing It Again

The Marlins are the youngest team in baseball and they're the cheapest team in baseball. Five of the six pitchers who've started a game have yet to celebrate their 26th birthday. Four of the those starters are making about the league minimum. 12 of their 14 position players make less than a million dollars. In Saturday's win over the Washington Nationals, none of their starters were older than 29 years old or made more than $500,000.

And they lead the NL East.

Let's go back to October of 2003. Remember when the Marlins shocked everybody and won that World Series over the Yankees? Despite having the sixth smallest payroll in the league, that team was stacked. Do the names Miguel Cabrera, Derrek Lee, Pudge Rodriguez, AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Lowell, Ugueth Urbina, and Juan Pierre ring a bell?

After they carried Beckett off the field in 2003, they held a fire sale on the shores of South Beach. The Marlins management let many sign for more money elsewhere or they parlayed them into young, cheap prospects.

Several key players this year were pieces of those trades. Most will remember that phenom Hanley Ramirez was shipped over in the trade with the Red Sox that involved Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.

However, few will remember that Renyel Pinto, who has a 0.69 ERA and five holds in 13 innings of relief this year, was part of the bundle in the Juan Pierre trade. He's just 25 years old, has a 3.11 ERA in 101.3 innings in his time with the Marlins, and averages just about a strikeout per inning. And his last name is Pinto.

In a very controversial move, the Marlins swapped Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera for six prospects including lefty starter Andrew Miller and top prospect Cameron Maybin among others. Even though he sports a 9.68 ERA, the 23-year old Miller has struck out 18 batters in 17.2 innings this year and remains a big-time prospect. Maybin is OPSing .900 in Double-A Carolina and will be ripe for a call up later in the season. He's just 21 by the way. Also in the deal, Burke Badenhop has started two games this year and Mike Rabelo is a fairly regular catcher for the big league club.

In Detroit, Dontrelle Willis is on the DL after just two starts while Miguel Cabrera has gotten off to a lukewarm start. Juan Pierre is fighting for playing time in Los Angeles and batting .282/.300/.333. In Boston, Mike Lowell is on the DL. Josh Beckett started the year off on the DL. So they trade Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, and Juan Pierre and they receive several quality starting pitchers, a star shortstop, a big-league catcher, a top setup man, a top prospect, and other quality prospects to boot.

Yeah, I'd say the Marlins are pretty frugal-- and good.

Detroit's Pitching Struggles

A lot of been said about the troubles of the Detroit Tigers lineup this year. Some baseball analysts even predicted they'd score 1000 runs this year. They'll need to score about 6.5 runs per game in order to do that. They're averaging just over 4 runs per game as is.

But the real reason that they've started out 6-13 this year is the struggles of the pitching staff. They've allowed 117 runs in their first 19 games. The last time they did that was in 7 years ago when the went 66-96.

Nate Robertson's loss to the Blue Jays today runs up the Starters ERA to 6.10. Compared to the ERA of the bullpen (4.95), it is clear that the starting pitching needs to be much improved.

Dontrelle Willis will most likely need a couple of rehab starts before he rejoins the starting rotation, so you can expect Galarraga to stick in the rotation for the time being. Nate Robertson, however, has recently complained of soreness in his lat muscle and gave up 5 runs today. Don't be surprised if Robertson is put on the DL and replaced by Triple-A pitcher Virgil Vasquez. Look for Verlander and Rogers to rebound.

Bi-Polar Royals

33:

The number of runs the Kansas City Royals have allowed this year in their first 13 games. This is the BEST in the AL.

41:

The number of runs the Kansas City Royals have scored this year in the first 13 games. This is the WORST in the AL.

But do they have the most yawns in the AL?

Detroit Drought Continues

It's getting even worse for the Detroit Tigers. They got blanked again tonight.

Not only have they lost the first seven games of the season, they haven't even scored more than 5 runs in a game yet. The Tigers have only achieved this feat two times since the introduction of league divisions in 1969. In 2002, it took them 11 games to manage getting more than 5 home-plate touches. They finished that year with 55 wins and 39 games out of first place in the Central Division. In 1982, it took them 12 games to reach the 6 run plateau. That team actually finished two games above .500 and just twelve games back.

Hey, at least their bats aren't as sad (re: bad) as the Giants who have a team OPS of .572. Nick Punto had a .562 OPS last year. Imagine a lineup of alternating between Jason Kendalls and Nick Puntos. That's how bad the Giants lineup is right now.

My hope for BS Report's next guest: Gene Wojciechowski

Today, Bill Simmons had some thoughts on the NCAA Tournament Championship between Kansas and Memphis. Particularly, he had a bone to pick with those sports writers who don't want Kansas' coach Bill Self to leave for his alma mater.

Worst debate coming out of the game: Will Bill Self stay at Kansas or "sell out" and jump to Oklahoma State to become the highest-paid college coach? There's nothing funnier than when sports columnists and radio hosts -- for the most part, a group of people who will appear on any conceivable show no matter how terrible it is, as long as they're getting paid at least $50, and by the way, if you want them to spend three months ghostwriting someone's forgettable biography, they're available for that, too -- complain someone else is selling out. Give it a rest. I guarantee that if you offered any sports media member three times as much money to work somewhere else, 99.99999999-percent of the time, they'd take it. They would. So please, shut the hell up and spare us the "selling out" stories.

So, who is Bill referring to? Could it be Gene Wojciechowski, the columnist right under him on ESPN.com?

Wojo's take:

Don't do it, Bill Self.

Don't take billionaire T. Boone Pickens' money, even if it means you could walk from Lawrence, Kan., to Stillwater, Okla., on a road paved with his cash.

I think it would be a fun-filled debate if Bill Simmons were to invite Gene on his next BS Report.

You want my take?

They're both underestimating the value of going back to your alma-mater and building that program. It's a challenge. In just five years, he's already overcome the challenge of winning a championship at Kansas-- something Roy Williams couldn't do in fifteen years. What else is left for him to prove there?

Look, Bill Self is an Oklahoma guy. He was born in Oklahoma. He was raised in Oklahoma. He was Oklahoma High School Player of the Year in 1981. He played basketball at Oklahoma State. He got his bachelor's degree at Oklahoma State. He got his master's degree at Oklahoma State. He was an assistant coach at Oklahoma State. He has coached two college basketball teams in the state of Oklahoma (Oral Roberts and Tulsa).

Oklahoma. Oklahoma. Oklahoma.

Oh and Oklahoma State has a head coaching vacancy.

It makes almost too much sense for Bill Self to come full-circle and become revamp his alma mater, Oklahoma State-- money aside. What if Bill Self has just been waiting all along to take over Eddie Sutton's program? What if this has nothing to do with money? He's proven all he can at Kansas. I say, let him go back home.

Step Away From the Ledge

To those teams that have started out 3-3 this season: don't jump.

Of the eight World Series Champions since 2000, five of them started out 3-3 and two of them started out 2-4. Only one of them (the White Sox) started out with a winning record after 6 games.

Calling all Red Sox, Twins, A's, Nats, Yankees, Indians, Rangers, Marlins, Braves, Pirates, Cubs fans... relax. The sky's the limit.

Royal Sweep the Tigers in Historic Fashion

To start the season, the Kansas City Royals swept the Detroit Tigers in their three game series. This is only the second time in 28 years they've opened the season with a sweep and only the fourth in their franchise history that dates back to 1969. The last time they started out 3-0 was in 2003 when they opened the season with nine straight wins. They finished that year with 83 wins.

What's more impressive is that they held the Tigers to just 5 runs over the three game span. In all the three-game series' between the two, the Royals kept the Tigers to five runs only twice (2002 and 1988). Of the Tigers who played that series in 2002, only one batter had ever been on an All Star team (Robert Fick 1). This season's Tigers? A combined 41 All Star appearances (Ivan Rodriguez 14, Gary Sheffield 9, Magglio Ordonez 6, Edgar Renteria 5, Miguel Cabrera 4, Carlos Guillen 2, Placido Polanco 1).

That's a bad start to the season for the Tigers -- not to mention they now have the second highest payroll in baseball with $138,685,197 on the books.

Opening Day Double Bops and Flops

On Opening Day this year, Jim Thome and Xavier Nady each hit 2 home runs in their teams first game. Today, Xavier Nady is the 7th most added player in ESPN Fantasy Baseball but is still unowned in 92% of leagues. The two home runs haven't provoked too many people to pick him up on their fantasy baseball team, suggesting that owners aren't confident it's a sign of things to come.

This got me thinking:

Of those players who hit two home runs on Opening Day, how many actually had a good season in fantasy baseball terms?

In the past ten Opening Days, there have been 27 occurrences of a player hitting two home runs. The table below lists those who did and their final 5x5 Rotisserie fantasy baseball statistics.

Xavier Nady has done this before. In 2005, he ended up hitting only 11 more home runs in the next 123 games after hitting two dingers in his team's first game. In 2006, he boosted his HR total to 17 and last year, he hit 20. His year-to-year power numbers have been improving so we'll have to see if it continues.

Of the 27 instances, 9 of them produced seasons with at least 100 Runs, 12 of them produced seasons with at least 30 home runs, 12 with at least 100 RBIs, and 12 with at least .300 batting average.

There were some memorable flops. Most recently, Chris Shelton hit 10 home runs in his first 23 games of the season but only hit 6 over his next 92 games. He eventually was sent down to the minor leagues, despite is torrid start. He hasn't played in the majors since that 2006 season.

Bernard Gilkey was a post-Opening Day disappointment too. In the next 93 games, he only hit 6 home runs after hitting 2 in the first one. At one point, he hadn't hit a home run in 42 games.

Overall, there were certainly more excellent seasons than bad. However, hitting two home runs on Opening Day does not guarantee that you'll be a valuable asset to a fantasy baseball team.

Nitpicking

In Bill Simmons' column today:

On the bright side, they can throw out a lineup of Jamaal Magloire, Jerry Stackhouse, Juwan Howard, Jason Kidd and Eddie Jones. Ladies and gentleman, your 1999 Eastern Conference All-Stars!

Jamaal Magloire was still at University of Kentucky in 1999. He was an All-Star in 2004.

Cy Young Flameouts

Bartolo Colon signed a minor league contract today with the Boston Red Sox. This got me thinking:

Who's flamed out the fastest after winning a Cy Young award?

While pitching for the Angels, Colon won 21 games to take home the AL Cy Young award in 2005 . He has failed to receive a major league contact two seasons later. While Bartolo works on getting another season in the majors, I researched who had the earliest exit after winning the Cy Young award.

Sandy Koufax should immediately come to mind in this discussion. The Hall of Famer finished his career with two straight Cy Young Awards before an arthritic condition sadly cut his career short following his 1966 season. After that season, the MLB decided to split up the Cy Young award into National and American Leagues.

Since Sandy Koufax, only one pitcher played less than three seasons after winning the Cy Young award. In 1980, Steve Stone, a long-time Cubs commentator, won the Cy Young after amassing a 25-7 record with the Baltimore Orioles. By 1982, he was out of the league. He retired following the 1981 offseason due to his arm troubles at the age of 33. Talk about throwing your arm out.

So, only one player during the last 43 seasons of the NL and AL Cy Young bowed out less than three seasons after winning the award. Jack Welch, LaMarr Hoyt, Pete Vuckovich, Rollie Fingers, Denny McLain and John Denny all pitched three seasons before hanging their cleats up.

The National League has recently seen a remarkable string of Hall of Fame pitchers win the Cy Young award. In fact, every NL Cy Young winner since 1991 is still pitching in the major leagues: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Eric Gagne, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb, and Jake Peavy.

That is, if you think Chris Carpenter is still pitching in the majors. After winning the Cy Young Award alongside Bartolo Colon in 2005, he has only played one full season since. In 2007, he made one start before elbow surgery caused him to miss the entire season. He's slated to miss a few months of the regular season before making his first start in a Cardinals uniform. This isn't the first time Carpenter has had major arm trouble; he had Tommy John surgery after his 2002 season with the Blue Jays. It is entirely possible that we have seen the last of the 2005 Cy Young Award winners. To have a Cy Young winner cut their career this short is rare. To have two Cy Young winners in the same year cut their career this short is extremely rare.

Bill Simmons calls it.

Bill Simmons called these trades to go down before the deadline:

Seattle trades Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Mickael Gelabale to Cleveland for Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, my illegitimate brother Cedric Simmons and a 2008 No. 2 pick.

Cleveland trades Drew Gooden, Shannon Brown and Ira Newble to Milwaukee for Charlie Villanueva and Bobby Simmons.

In all, Simmons predicted that the Cavs would unload:
Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Shannon Brown, Ira Newble, Cedric Simmons, Damon Jones, and a No. 2 pick.

Today, the Cavs traded away:
Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Shannon Brown, Ira Newble, Cedric Simmons, and Larry Hughes.

That's pretty dead on. The only difference is that Larry Hughes was traded instead of Damon Jones and the No. 2 pick.

Moreover, for those seven pieces, Simmons hoped the Cavs received the following 5 players:
Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Mickael Gelabale, Charlie Villanueva, and Bobby Simmons.

Today, Cavs received:
Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and a future 2nd Rd Pick.

So, he did predict that the Cavs would receive Szczerbiak and West from the Sonics but he didn't see Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and a 2nd Rd pick coming.

Would you rather have Gelabale, Villanueva, and Bobby Simmons over Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and a future second round pick?

In Gelabale, you're getting a throw-in 24 year old French forward who has promising shooting skills. In Villanueva, you're getting a young perimeter big man who's numbers have all declined since his big rookie season. His PPG has dropped from 13.0 to 11.8 to 9.7 the last three years while his rebounds have decreased 0.6 rebounds each year from 6.4 to 5.8 to 5.2. This could be a product of shortened playing time with Milwaukee but it's still not good that the 23 year old hasn't improved in the last 3 years. On the hook for close to $30 million for the next 3 years, Bobby Simmons is a 27 year old who's numbers have dropped significantly from his big year in LA a few years ago. So, all in all, you'd be getting three young question marks who have a combined 19.7 points per game this year. You'd already be getting a shooter in Szczerbiak, why 2 other players of the same size and a shooter in Charlie Newtown?

Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and a future 2nd round pick is a completely different package. You're getting two old veteran big man who have almost 15,000 rebounds between the two of them. Together, they'll help big time down low with defensive presence and selfless offense (both have less than 10 shots a game). And that's the most important thing in this trade. Does Lebron want a 6'11 perimeter player again after Donyell Marshall?

Did you know Joe Smith is younger than Ben Wallace? Did you know this will be his 8th team? And he's never made it to the second round in the playoffs? Remember when he was the #1 pick in the draft? Get this guy a ring please.

Consider this a big big win for the Cavs and a big "Huh?" for the Bulls.

He found it.

Turning 42-years old later this season, New York Met Moises Alou wants to continue playing despite his old age.

"I don't know what happened to me," Alou said. "Maybe New York is the fountain of youth." Maybe. Funny how the Mitchell Report centered on many New York baseball players. Looks like he already asked Paul LoDuca and Guillermo Mota where the fountain can be found.

He went on to say, "I hate watching baseball." Maybe this has something to do with it:

Tommy John vs Steroids?

This quote from 38-year old Arthur Rhodes scared me:

"I was frustrated last year," Rhodes said. "I had a good spring training but I just came up hurt. I just told myself in the offseason, 'Hey, you've got a new arm now, a new elbow. Just go out there and show them you can still pitch.' "

Sound familiar? Getting frustrated and hurt, then doing something to make your body "new" and revitalized in the tail-end of your career. The "fountain of youth" that Rhodes speaks of is Tommy John surgery-- not steroids.

Hmm...

Is Bunting Bad For Your Club?

With Spring Training just around the corner, I thought to jump right in to analyzing some baseball statistics. A Research Methods class lecture the other day inspired me to look at the relationships between last year's wins and various hitting statistics of each team. Just for kicks, I took the correlations of wins versus Runs Scored (RS), Runs Allowed (RA), H, 2B, 3B, HR, Total Bases (TB), OBP, SLG, OPS, BB, SO, Stolen Bases (SB), and Sacrifice Hits (SH). While it would be better to use years and years worth of data, I was just foolin' around with these numbers from the past year.

The data can be found here.

Here are the correlations:

v. W	r
RA	-0.652
RS	0.616
OBP	0.614
OPS	0.560
BA	0.496
TB	0.493
H	0.479
SLG	0.465
BB	0.378
2B	0.300
HR	0.187
SO	-0.173
SH	-0.166
SB	0.141
3B	0.013

Here are some of my thoughts:

• It's no surprise that Runs Allowed and Runs Scored are the two strongest relationships with winning baseball games. After all, in order to win a game, you need to outscore your opponent. Run Differential, which is just RS-RA, is used often among baseball analysts to assess the quality of a baseball club. While run differential can't predict short-run success (i.e. World Series), it is very helpful to predict long-term success in the win column. Moreover, of the eight playoff teams this year, five placed in the top 10 in RA and six placed in the top 10 in RS.
  
• Number of sacrifice hits has an inverse correlation with victories. Sacrificing an out to get a runner over is a costly move, a move that many, like A's GM Billy Beane, don't think the reward is worth the risk. One way to interpret this correlation is that those who lay down bunts probably have little power and thus, have developed skills in moving the guys over to compensate for their lack of hitting ability. In other words, bunting may be a product of having poor hitting skills. A coach wouldn't want David Ortiz bunting in a high pressure situation, would he? But if Julio Lugo is up to bat, Francona may signal to drop the bunt down. Managers may claim that he'll put on the bunt because the batter is "speedy" and "scrappy" but he probably means that he's "not a good hitter." There's a reason why players like Juan Pierre and Omar Vizquel and pitchers lead their league in sacrifice hits.
  
• Sidenote: what's also interesting here is that the Rockies had the most sacrifice hits. That's right-- the Rockies. While it's typical to find a National League team leading the league in sacrifice hits, it is unusual to see the National League Champion at the top of the list. The data does not include postseason victories but, I found they bunted 5 times in 11 games in the postseason which is pretty close to the 83:163 ratio during the regular season, leaving out the possibility that they changed their strategy in the playoffs.
  
• Home runs are pretty low on this list, lower than doubles and walks. One would think that having a home run hitter would always be a great thing for winning games. Keep in mind, home run hitters will swing for the fences but will also tend to swing and miss more than others. I ran an analysis and found that home runs are the most highly correlated statistic with strikeouts. (r = .595). Free swingers, if you will. Think Richie Sexson.

Correlations certainly have their limits in analysis but last year's data produces some interesting material to look at. Feel free to discuss further.

Breaking News: Andy Pettitte is a Human Being

Must be a slow news day in New York. George A. King III over at NY Post posted this today.

Jeter: 'Human' Pettitte bothered

This is fun. Human Pettitte. Robot J5. Dog Lassie. Toilet Paper Charmin.

TAMPA -- Beyond the eyes that burn with intensity and a competitive spirit that has carried him further than his tools, Andy Pettitte is exactly like the rest of us: He requires a heart to live, a brain to think, legs to walk and a mouth to talk.

Did anyone doubt that he, the Human Pettitte, lacked any of these? I think Liutenent Dan would have something to say about the requiring "legs to walk" thing. Also, get this man some Clear Eyes!

That’s why Derek Jeter says that Pettitte’s inclusion in the Mitchell Report, his admission of taking two spikes of HGH in 2002 to help an elbow problem, and what he said in a recent deposition about longtime buddy Roger Clemens will bother the Yankees lefty.

Because he has a big toe that helps him keep balance, an ear that helps him hear, and a nose to help him smell. He's a human-- unlike most people?

“He is human," the captain said today following a morning workout at the minor league complex. “Not speaking for him but I can only imagine; he is human so I am sure it will."

I like how Jeter doesn't want to speak for him but George King makes Jeter speak for him in the title of the piece "Jeter: 'Human' Pettitte bothered." Too high of a punctuation to word ratio there.

Pettitte, whose scheduled appearance at a congressional hearing tomorrow in Washington was nixed Monday night, is expected to report to Legends Field Thursday with the rest of the pitchers and catchers and start working out Friday.

Because he' s a human being.

If Jeter, who initially met Pettitte when they were 1992 Single-A teammates in Greensboro, is right and Pettitte is bothered, it may have an impact on how well he gets into pitching shape during camp.

Did you see what he did there? Took one quote saying that Andy Pettitte is, in fact, a human being and WHAM: journalism. Way to go George!

J.R.R. Conlin

Stumbled upon a Philly Daily News column by Bill Conlin regarding Ryan Howard's contract negotiations:

FOR 2 YEARS NOW, the Rynomiter has blown them all away.

I googled "Rynomiter" and came up with 3 entries, all of them to this article. No one calls him Rynomiter. That's not his nickname. I don't even think I know how to pronounce that.

It gets zanier.

After perhaps the greatest first full power season of any player in history, Ryan Howard last winter butted heads with the service-time ogre guarding a shallow moat around the pastime's only citadel of control over its finances.

What? An ogre? A moat? A citadel??? I really wish he would keep calling him Ryanimotor... err Ryanomitor... errr Rynoceros... errr Rynomiter. Yes. Rynomiter. I think this could really catch on.

(Whoops.)

From Bill Simmons' mailbag with his NFL conference championship picks, I found this funny:

The Pick: Green Bay 30, New York 10

The Score: New York 23, Green Bay 20

Three straight road games for the Giants. (Uh-oh.)

Heading into the Green Bay game, the Giants won 9 straight games on the road. (Whoops.)

Eli playing a night game in the freezing cold when he's already on record as saying he hates playing in the freezing cold. (Uh-oh.)

Who likes playing in the freezing cold? Anyone like to get chased around by 300 pound behemoths in extremely cold weather? Anyone? If you watched the game, didn't Brett Favre look more miserable than Eli? Eli threw for 254 yards while the Giants elected to play a safe red zone offense-- running the ball. Only two visiting QB's this year have amassed more yards at Lambeau than Eli did. Eli did it in below-zero temperatures in the biggest game of his life. (Whoops.)

People talking themselves into the Giants as a Team of Destiny. (Uh-oh.)

I don't see what this has to do with what happens on the field. If anything, I'd want a confident, supportive fan base behind my team if I'm going to Lambeau Field in the NFC Championship game. Somehow, callers on WFAN have some effect on this game. Right. (Whoops.)

A Packers team that already has proven it's a monster home team that can extend leads into double figures. (Uh-oh.)

Already proven it's a monster road team that can extend leads into double figures: A Giants team. The Packers went 7-1 at home during the regular season --with no double-digit victories against a winning football team. Their stellar record looks monstrous but not when you look a little deeper and find that they had a cake home schedule that only featured one team with a winning record. Also, shouldn't every playoff team be able to "extend leads into double figures? (Whoops.)

Assuming the Pats win, the delicious possibility of Brett Favre and the Packers trying to stop the 18-0 Patriots. (Uh-oh.)

I believe it was you, Bill, who wrote this in your column just 17 days ago "Here's the problem: In the NFL, the best possible Super Bowl scenario almost never happens." Lesson learned. (Whoops.)

On David Eckstein's resume: Knows How to Play Baseball

Peter Gammons reported today:

With the Twins in search of middle-infield help, one potential target is free agent David Eckstein. "I've always had a lot of respect for him," said Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire.

He’s really short, we get it.

"He catches the ball.”

But not very well.

Among 24 qualified shortstops last year, he placed 22^nd in Fielding Percentage. Don’t like Fielding Percentage? He’s in the middle of the pack in terms of Range Factor and Zone Rating in his position. He has the 6^th most errors (not catching the ball) among qualified shortstops while having the 3^rd least total chances.

I think Gammons cut him off. What Gardenhire meant to say was "He catches the ball--but not very well."

"He knows how to play."

I’d expect that a historian knows how to read and write. I’d expect that a chef knows how to cook. I’d expect an account knows how to count. I’d expect that a baseball player knows how to play baseball.

"He's a proven winner."

Why, because he happened to be on two teams who have won a couple World Series recently? Or maybe you think that all five foot and three inches of him single-handedly fielded, batted, pitched, and cheerleaded his teams to glory? I doubt it.

Other proven winners/players with two World Series rings:

Doug Mirabelli, Timo Perez, Jose Vizcaino, Juan Encarnacion, and Scott Spiezio. Proven. Winners.

Wallace has a Love Affair with Quotation Marks

If Wallace Matthews over at Newsday read his column out loud, he would probably look a lot like Bennett Brower. In today's piece, he put the following words in quotations:

"No"
"Yes"
"No"
"Yes""ol' tomato"
"Cave in by last night or else"
"deadline"
"want"
"outrage"
"insult"
"played"
"negotiation"

None of those words were used in a direct quote of a person, he was just coining his own terms at will. Later in the column...

After backing off on A-Rod, how they expect anyone to believe they are now going to stick to their word on Santana is beyond me. Not when the Red Sox are out there poised to make Santana their No. 1 to Josh Beckett's 1A. Not when the Yankees rotation right now consists of Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, the ghost of Mike Mussina and a bunch of kids wearing diapers under their uniforms.

I'm assuming he is referring to the Pampers-wearing 21-year old Philip Hughes, the Huggies-strapped 22-year old Joba Chamberlain and Luvs-donning Ian Kennedy who is a 22-year old. Mr. Matthews, these guys are really good.

Their minor league numbers are outstanding. The sample of their major league numbers are too small to make any statistically significant observations but we can note that all three more than held their own while getting their feet wet. Philip Hughes was widely regarded as the top pitching prospect entering the year. As a 21 year old, he pitched better down the stretch (5 starts 2.73 ERA in Sept/Oct) than the diaper-less Andy Pettitte (5 starts 5.86 ERA in Sept/Oct). Joba was unhittable coming up to the bigs and Ian Kennedy starred in his first 3 starts in the majors. Teams all over the league would love to have these guys in their rotation. Apparently, not you.

Give 'em all the diapers they need if they pitch as well as they have. What else you got for us?

And not when all of baseball already knows your word is as good as Kyle Farnsworth in the eighth inning of a close game.

Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera in Late Close situations as defined as PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck) in 2007:

How about that? Kyle Farnsworth has actually been better in these Late & Close situations than Rivera; less people get hits, get on-base, and hit for power when they face sarcastically-good Farnsworth. I certainly didn't expect these results but I figured I'd look it up. Substituting Kyle's name with an "ol' tomato" would have been much better. And funnier.

Wallace you just got "played" by yours truly.

SEC = WAC. Huh?

Gene Wojciechowski has some gripes about the BCS in his most recent column.

The BCS works so well that the only undefeated team in the country, Hawaii, could finish the regular season 12-0 and still get squeezed out of a BCS bowl game.

Saying they're undefeated and saying they could win one more game to be 12-0 is redundant.

For fun, Hawaii's 2007 schedule is as follows:

vs. Northern Colorado (1-11)
at Louisiana Tech (5-6)
at UNLV (2-10)
vs. Charleston Southern (5-6)
at Idaho (1-11)
vs. Utah State (2-10)
at San Jose St (5-7)
vs. New Mexico St (4-8)
vs. Fresno St (7-4)
at Nevada (5-6)
vs Boise St (10-2)

They've won all eleven games this year against opponents who have a combined record of 47 -81 or .364 winning percentage (or .398 if you exclude losses to Hawaii). They played only ONE team that was ranked, Boise State, who by the way, have yet to beat a ranked team. What's more, outside of Boise State, Hawaii played ONE team with a winning record, Fresno State.

Hawaii hasn't been tested. If they had beaten someone who was A) Good and B) Not in the WAC, then maybe we should take them more seriously. But they haven't. Their out of conference schedule is as follows: Northern Colorado, UNLV, and Charleston Southern. North Colorado is last in the Big Sky Conference, UNLV is last in the MWC, and Charleston Southern is second to last in the Big South Conference. Their combined record is 8-24 (.250) excluding losses to Hawaii. See my point?

We can't consider Hawaii a serious BCS bowl candidate if they continue to play a cake schedule.

Here's when Wojciechowski starts comparing Apples to Oranginas.

Meanwhile, two-loss Georgia, which didn't even win its conference division or qualify for its league championship game, could conceivably play in a national title game. Huh?

Huh.

In order to play in the SEC championship game, which is arguably the best league in the country mind you, Georgia needed to win its division. Once again, you're being redundant.

Georgia plays in the SEC, a conference that boasts five BCS ranked teams with Arkansas and Kentucky barely on the outside looking in. The SEC is arguably the best conference in the nation-- worlds better than the WAC. Moreover, their only losses are to two good SEC teams: Tennessee (who went on to win the SEC division) and South Carolina (a team that was ranked as high as #6 this season).

Georgia IS one of the best teams in the country who have survived a really really tough conference. Hawaii hasn't proven they deserve to be in the BCS bowl game simply because they haven't beaten anyone near the quality of Georgia's opponents this year. It's not even close.

Granted, the BCS is may have its flaws. However, it is inadequate to argue that Hawaii deserves a BCS bowl game more than Georgia deserves to play in the BCS Championship in the unlikely event that Mizzou and West Virginia lose.

Don't forget, Hawaii could lose to Washington next week. The Huskies would be Hawaii's only opponent in the PAC-10, SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, or ACC.

Welcome to the big-leagues, Hawaii.

Guthrie gets no love outside of Law

I usually like all of Keith Law's work. That's why his most recent column got me all hot and bothered.

Here is his pick for AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Guthrie. His reasoning?

The Red Sox had three of the top five rookies in the league with Pedroia, Hideki Okajima and Daisuke Matsuzaka, and it's entirely possible that the actual balloting will find those three guys in the 1-2-3 spots. But despite fading badly down the stretch (possibly due to injury), Guthrie performed a bit better than any of the Red Sox's kids. He was the biggest success story of Leo Mazzone's tenure in Baltimore, and it will be interesting to see if he regresses with Mazzone gone.

If you're gonna claim that we should excuse the 28-year old Jeremy Guthrie's horrible performance over the latter half of the season (5.03 ERA Post All-Star, 6 starts in August with batters hitting .944 OPS off of him and a 6.23 ERA) because he may have been injured (he left his start due to injury on Sept 9, not in August I might add), then how would you feel about Pedroia hitting .302 in Sept/Oct with more XBH than K's, good defense, with a cracked hamate bone in his left hand?

It's true that Guthrie pitched lights out in the first half of the season outside his early stints in the bullpen. However, the award isn't for first half performance, it's for the entire season. They both played with injury and suffered for it; Pedroia had a .764 OPS in Sept/October but Guthrie only made 3 starts in September.

What's more egregious is that Keith Law picked fellow AL second baseman Placido Polanco as the 10th most deserving player for AL MVP.

In 67 less AB's, Pedroia had the more doubles, equal number of extra base hits, equal SB, and more walks. Their rates are OBP and SLG rates are almost identical with the disparity between the two players resulting from Polanco hit a lot more singles than Pedroia did. Singles.

The difference between Pedroia getting second in the AL Rookie of the Year and being a candidate for MVP is a bunch of base hits. And defense.

Polanco received a Gold Glove following an error-free season. Pedroia was not too bad though. Among ML second basemen, Pedroia was 6th in Zone Rating, 5th in Fielding Percentage, and 3rd least Errors.

Just for kicks:

2007 AL Rookie of the Year Voting
Player, Club	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Dustin Pedroia, BOS	24	4		132
Delmon Young, TB	3	12	5	56
Brian Bannister, KC	1	8	7	36
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS		2	6	12
Reggie Willits, LAA		2	5	11
Hideki Okajima, BOS			3	3
Josh Fields, CWS			1	1
Joakim Soria, KC			1	1

Papelbon and Rivera: Closer Than You Think

"He's kind of the man that, to everybody who is a closer now, he's like the 'Godfather.' I think what he's done for the role of a closer and for the game of baseball has been a big thing. Like I said man, he's like the 'Godfather.'"
-Jonathan Papelbon speaking about Mariano Rivera during spring training this year.

It's no secret that longtime New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is considered one of the best, if not the best, closer in the history of the game. Just look at what he's done in his 13 year career.

Career Numbers in 787 games:
2.35 ERA
1.046 WHIP
8.09 K/9
Third all-time in Saves (443)
8 All Star Appearances
4 times Top-3 in Cy Young voting as a closer.
Postseason Numbers in 76 Games:
0.77 ERA
1.15 WHIP
34 Saves
17-9 Record.
7.13 K/9

As a Red Sox fan, I can tell you he is one of the most intimidating pitchers on the mound that I have ever seen. The numbers back it up and I only wish there was a "split bats" statistic because he would undoubtedly lead that category as well. What's more, he has relied on a single pitch-- the cut fastball-- his entire career and still, no one can hit it on a consistent basis.

At the age of 25, he broke through the Yankees system as a starter while the Yankees placed 2nd in the AL East. In the following season, he was turned into a setup man for then closer John Wetteland and posted a blistering 2.09 ERA striking out 130 batters in 107 2/3 innings. From there, he closed the door for the Yankees for 11 seasons.

The start of their careers are compared below. Like Rivera, Papelbon came through the minor leagues and broke into the big league ball club as a starter. Like Rivera, Papelbon was converted into a reliever following his first stint in the bigs. Like Rivera, Papelbon has excelled in his role as the closer.

We see that Jonathan Papelbon has posted better ERA's in each of the first 3 seasons in his career. Keep in mind that in their first years, Papelbon and Rivera started some games for their teams. Year's 2 and 3 are strictly from the bullpen.
Also, his WHIP (BB+/IP) is better than Rivera and decreasing every year.


Their strikeout rates are both impressive but Papelbon has increased his K's each year with this year showing the biggest rate jump (31.3%).

Totals over the first 3 years of career.

	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/IP
Rivera	146	245.4	2.97	1.19	9.13	0.34	0.07
Papelbon	135	160.2	1.63	0.92	10.84	0.28	0.07

Enter Sandman's successor as best closer in the game: Jonathan R. Papelbon. Interestingly enough, Papelbon has outperformed the Rivera in many important pitching categories over the beginning of each of their careers. This is not to say that Papelbon will have a better career than the great Mariano Rivera but it is a wonder that Papelbon's torrid start to his career hasn't been mentioned more in baseball circles.

There is reason to worry about the likelihood that Papelbon will be able to sustain these numbers over the long term, however. According to Baseball-Reference.com, the two most statistically similar players through Papelbon's age are Terry Fox and Bob Lee. A Detroit Tigers reliever in the 1960's, Terry Fox didn't pitch past 30 years old after posting a 4.80 ERA in 1966. Also relieving in the 60's, Bob Lee flamed out at 30 years old as well.

I think it's a good idea that Red Sox management has pampered Pap and his shoulder this year. Terry Fox and Bob Lee would probably agree that Papelbon is not necessarily destined for the Hall.

Let's hope Papelbon is no Fredo Corleone.

Phil Rogers Jinxed the Cards

Since ESPN Phil Rogers' September 10th column ("Cardinals still pushing to make the playoffs," they lost a game to the Mets and then got swept by the lowly Reds. They've now lost 8 out of their last 9 games and currently sit on a 7 game losing streak. Their record stands at 69-75 and find themselves 4.5 games back in the NL Central with only 18 games left.

Ouch.