GroupThought: The JJ Hardy-Carlos Gomez Trade

Here's the first installment of GroupThought.  Want to know what the smart baseball people think about the day's big deal?  It's all right here.

Today's Deal: Twins receive shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Milwaukee Brewers for centerfielder Carlos Gomez.  Interestingly, everyone wrote about Hardy first which of course means Gomez is merely an afterthought to everyone but the Brewers.

GroupThinker: ESPN.com's Rob Neyer.
Where can I read more? Right here.
Can I get a money quote? Of course.

And of course you have to love this deal for the Twins, who got a player they really wanted (for good reason) in exchange for a guy they didn't really want at all. That said, unless they get another outfielder, this move means more playing time for Delmon Young, and it's not at all clear that that's a good thing. And if anything should happen to Michael Cuddyer...

GroupThinker: Circling The Bases' Aaron Gleeman
Where can I read more? Right here.
 Can I get a money quote? Get you some.

Minnesota has long been rumored to have interest in Hardy and the fact that his demotion to Triple-A pushed free agency back another season no doubt appealed to the budget-conscious Twins. Gomez fell behind Denard Span and Delmon Young in the Twins' outfield pecking order, rarely playing down the stretch, and has made little progress offensively since coming over from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade.

GroupThinker: MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes
Where can I read more? Right here.

Can I get a money quote? Fine.

While I expected the Brewers to snag a young pitcher for Hardy, I like the move for both sides.  Center field was certainly a need for the Brewers with Mike Cameron eligible for free agency...Hardy is a huge addition for the Twins, who entered the offseason needing upgrades at shorstop, third base, and second base.  Due to an August demotion by the Brewers, Hardy is under team control for 2010 and 2011 (Hardy says there are "no hard feelings.")

GroupThinker: Sabernomics' J.C. Bradbury
Where can I read more? Right here.
Can I get a money quote? Cash rules everything around me... so here.

Gomez is a nice defender at a premium position, but he couldn’t hit in the minors any more than he can hit in the majors. But, his defense is the only thing that keeps him valuable. His 2008, when he had a +29 Plus/Minus, was worth just around $8 million; but I think that’s the high end of his production and that he’s more of a $7 million player. I believe he’s got one more year of purely-reserved service before beginning arbitration, so he is cheap and controlled for several more years. The down side is that one injury, and this kid is toast. He can’t move over to a corner.

 GroupThinker: FanGraph's Dave Cameron
Where can I read more? Right here.
Can I get a money quote? Absolutely.

Gomez is still young and will make the league minimum next year, so the Brewers save some cash, but this still strikes me as a very light return on a quality player. Gomez has some potential, but he’s a work in progress, and the Brewers aren’t really in rebuilding mode. If they go into 2010 with him as their starting CF, they’re going to be taking a pretty significant risk.

Big thumbs up to the Twins here, who got better in a hurry. The Brewers had their hands tied a bit due to the logjam at SS, but it’s still hard to imagine this is the best they could do.

GroupThinker: The Hardball Times' Evan Brunell
Where can I read more? Right here.
Can I get a money quote? Si.

Even if Gomez is the equivalent of a 5.00 ERA pitcher, the latter comes with a higher price tag. Heck, look at the salaries the Brew Crew paid/is paying Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper. By doing this deal, the Brewers have signaled that they will not bring Mike Cameron back. Milwaukee can use that saved money and go after a free agent pitcher, a situation that gives Milwaukee better control over what pitchers come to town and at what cost.

GroupThinker: Beyond the Boxscore's Michael Jong (SFiercex4)
Where can I read more? Right here.
Can I get a money quote? Yes. But remember: money, it's a crime.

Even at the reduced level of production that Gomez is projected at, the years of control give him a slight edge in terms of value over J.J. Hardy. The time Hardy spent in the minors this year is going to help Minnesota recuperate some of the value lost by sending a decent piece to the Brewers.

GroupThinker: FanGraph Fantasy Baseball's David Golebiewski.
Where can I read more? Right here.
Can I get a money quote? Sure can.

But even so, J.J. was unlucky on balls put in play in 2009. He actually didn’t pop the ball up excessively (9.1 IF/FB%), taking away one possible cause of the low BABIP. Using this expected BABIP toolfrom The Hardball Times, we get a .306 XBABIP for Hardy, based on his HR, K, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls...Even assuming all hits were singles, that would raise Hardy’s triple-slash from .229/.302/.357 to a less-wretched .271/.344/.399 ...Essentially, his 2009 performance wasn’t all that different from his overall level of play at the major league level.

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