Today's analysis will cover the Red Sox bullpen. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has put together arguably the best bullpen of the AL playoff lot and in turn, Francona will likely need the least Ambien stemming from bullpen anxiety. It's scary to think that seven Boston relief arms boast an FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) lower than 4.50, not to mention three who've had extensive closing experience for big club teams (Jonathan Papelbon, Billy Wagner, and Takashi Saito). For comparative sake, the Red Sox have more sub-4.50 FIP relievers than the Angels and Yankees combined.
So who does Tito trust the most? One way to measure Francona's reliever taste is to examine who he selects to pitch in the highest pressure (leverage) situations. To do this, I traveled over to Fangraphs and grabbed Daniel Bard, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Papelbon, Wagner, and Saito's Leverage Index numbers found in their Win Expectancy page.
For those unfamiliar with Leverage Index, it's a more advanced metric similar to the maybe more familiar Late and Close split you can find on most mainstream player profiles. By definition, it is a measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base. An LI of zero means the game outcome is essentially decided and if my father isn't dozing off after 9:30pm, then the LI is probably north of 2.0. You can think of it as your fan pulse.
For this study, I'll be using gmLI which measures the pitcher's average LI when he enters the game. From the mouth of the architect Tom Tango, gmLI in particular "shows a manager perspective, as it indicates the level of fire that the manager wanted his reliever to face."
Enough stat explainers, let's get back to the good stuff. As expected, with a 1.84 gmLI Jonathan Papelbon has been called upon by Francona in the most crucial pitching situations, on average, among Red Sox relievers this year. Following Papelbon, Hideki Okajima (1.43) ranks second on the year and fellow countryman Takashi Saito (0.59) is the least trusted of the group. For what it's worth, Saito has a 2.44 ERA and the lowest gmLI in the American League among qualifiers. In other words, Francona has the envy of every other manager in baseball.
Instead of looking at the whole year, maybe the more pertinent question to ask is how might Francona be feeling right now with the recent acquisition of Billy Wagner and growth of Daniel Bard? To examine this I looked at the September gmLI for the Boston relief core and compared it to the season's gmLI (click the image if your eyes hurt).
It seems Francona has become lukewarm about using Okajima in high leverage situations recently. According to this chart, Ramirez, Bard, and Wagner have replaced Okajima in the primary setup role. Francona isn't comfortable with using Saito above his batterymates. How has Francona's preferences evolved as the season wears on? Let's take a look (again, click if you're squint-averse).
Ramon Ramirez' arc follows a U-shaped curve to suggest he's regained Francona's favor whereas his confidence in Daniel Bard has rocketed skyward since June. Despite his excellent ERA, I'd be shocked to see Saito in the big situations come October given how he's been used recently. It's worth noting that Justin Masterson and Javier Lopez took a small chunk of the big spots early in the year but they're obviously not a part of this group going forward.
It's pretty difficult to discern if anyone has complete control of the top setup spot but it's pretty clear to see that Francona will tab either Ramirez, Bard, or Wagner in the toughest non-closing situations. Come to think of it, I doubt the Red Sox even use the term "8th inning guy" in house. But given Bard's youth and the available alternatives, I doubt Francona will use him in the first big spot in the playoffs. As crazy as it sounds, either Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima or Manny Delcarmen will be demoted to mop-up duty during the playoffs.
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