Papelbon and Rivera: Closer Than You Think

"He's kind of the man that, to everybody who is a closer now, he's like the 'Godfather.' I think what he's done for the role of a closer and for the game of baseball has been a big thing. Like I said man, he's like the 'Godfather.'"
-Jonathan Papelbon speaking about Mariano Rivera during spring training this year.

It's no secret that longtime New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is considered one of the best, if not the best, closer in the history of the game. Just look at what he's done in his 13 year career.

Career Numbers in 787 games:
2.35 ERA
1.046 WHIP
8.09 K/9
Third all-time in Saves (443)
8 All Star Appearances
4 times Top-3 in Cy Young voting as a closer.
Postseason Numbers in 76 Games:
0.77 ERA
1.15 WHIP
34 Saves
17-9 Record.
7.13 K/9

As a Red Sox fan, I can tell you he is one of the most intimidating pitchers on the mound that I have ever seen. The numbers back it up and I only wish there was a "split bats" statistic because he would undoubtedly lead that category as well. What's more, he has relied on a single pitch-- the cut fastball-- his entire career and still, no one can hit it on a consistent basis.

At the age of 25, he broke through the Yankees system as a starter while the Yankees placed 2nd in the AL East. In the following season, he was turned into a setup man for then closer John Wetteland and posted a blistering 2.09 ERA striking out 130 batters in 107 2/3 innings. From there, he closed the door for the Yankees for 11 seasons.

The start of their careers are compared below. Like Rivera, Papelbon came through the minor leagues and broke into the big league ball club as a starter. Like Rivera, Papelbon was converted into a reliever following his first stint in the bigs. Like Rivera, Papelbon has excelled in his role as the closer.

We see that Jonathan Papelbon has posted better ERA's in each of the first 3 seasons in his career. Keep in mind that in their first years, Papelbon and Rivera started some games for their teams. Year's 2 and 3 are strictly from the bullpen.
Also, his WHIP (BB+/IP) is better than Rivera and decreasing every year.


Their strikeout rates are both impressive but Papelbon has increased his K's each year with this year showing the biggest rate jump (31.3%).

Totals over the first 3 years of career.

	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/IP
Rivera	146	245.4	2.97	1.19	9.13	0.34	0.07
Papelbon	135	160.2	1.63	0.92	10.84	0.28	0.07

Enter Sandman's successor as best closer in the game: Jonathan R. Papelbon. Interestingly enough, Papelbon has outperformed the Rivera in many important pitching categories over the beginning of each of their careers. This is not to say that Papelbon will have a better career than the great Mariano Rivera but it is a wonder that Papelbon's torrid start to his career hasn't been mentioned more in baseball circles.

There is reason to worry about the likelihood that Papelbon will be able to sustain these numbers over the long term, however. According to Baseball-Reference.com, the two most statistically similar players through Papelbon's age are Terry Fox and Bob Lee. A Detroit Tigers reliever in the 1960's, Terry Fox didn't pitch past 30 years old after posting a 4.80 ERA in 1966. Also relieving in the 60's, Bob Lee flamed out at 30 years old as well.

I think it's a good idea that Red Sox management has pampered Pap and his shoulder this year. Terry Fox and Bob Lee would probably agree that Papelbon is not necessarily destined for the Hall.

Let's hope Papelbon is no Fredo Corleone.